The current disruption is temporary. Publishers who adapt AI strategically will emerge stronger when the market rebalances.
After more than a decade working with publishers, I’ve learned that industry “Armageddon” moments follow predictable patterns. From cookie deprecation to social traffic shifts, each upheaval creates temporary chaos before markets find equilibrium. The publishers who thrive are those who recognize these transition periods as opportunities to secure better positioning for the future.
This context is crucial as publishers rush to launch branded answer engines and AI-powered site search tools. In recent weeks, The Information, Gannett and others have unveiled chatbot interfaces that mine only their own content. While these tools may increase engagement among existing visitors, they don’t address the fundamental challenge: fewer people are visiting publisher sites in the first place.
AI presents the latest challenge. The real battle is for market position when things stabilize.
Understanding the Rebalancing
Consider recipe websites, which represent a perfect case study of AI’s impact. Industry data shows that nearly 60% of Google searches now end without a click, compared to just 26% in 2022. To illustrate the impact: if one billion page views previously supported roughly 2,500 recipe sites, today’s reduced traffic means roughly 800 million page views now support the same number of sites. Everyone feels the squeeze simultaneously.
Think of this as a game of musical chairs. When the music stops, everyone scrambles because there are fewer chairs than players. Publishers are positioning themselves to have a guaranteed seat when the game ends, rather than fighting to avoid elimination in a single round. The current chaos feels overwhelming because we’re mid-transition. Eventually, the market will reach a sustainable balance where the remaining publishers are on stable footing.
Here’s what makes the current moment uniquely challenging: we still have the same number of sites competing for significantly less traffic. This imbalance won’t last forever. Historically, when new technologies reshape content consumption, markets find stability. Some publishers will exit, others will adapt and those remaining will compete for a more appropriate share of the available audience and revenue.
Learn the New Rules
The most actionable step publishers can take is mastering AI optimization. This means structuring content so AI platforms can understand, reference and credit it while driving meaningful value back to publishers. This approach ensures content remains visible and valuable in AI-mediated discovery.
This strategy proves more promising than the current wave of publisher-specific answer engines. On-site chatbot tools may increase engagement among existing visitors, but they don’t solve the core problem of declining referral traffic. Publishers should instead focus on making their content discoverable and valuable within the AI platforms where audiences are actually searching.
Some publishers are already testing alternative content feeds for AI crawlers, tracking AI-originated referrals and negotiating direct partnerships with AI companies. These early movers are building relationships and technical capabilities that will matter when licensing and attribution models mature.
Focus on What AI Cannot Replace
While AI excels at summarizing static information, it struggles with live events, real-time commentary and experiential content. Publishers seeing success are doubling down on formats that require human insight, immediacy or community engagement. These are areas where AI remains limited.
This doesn’t mean abandoning your core content areas. A recipe publisher shouldn’t switch to sports coverage. Consider how to make your existing expertise more dynamic, timely and interactive.
The Long View
Every major media transition has followed similar patterns: print to digital, desktop to mobile, social-dependent to direct audience relationships. Initial disruption, market oversupply, gradual consolidation and then stability for those who have successfully adapted.
We’re currently in the disruption and oversupply phase. Publishers should use this time to strengthen their positioning, optimize for new discovery methods and build direct audience relationships.
The current turbulence is real, but it’s temporary.